Nigeria Taxpayer Base Surges to 100 Million Amid Compliance Concerns Over Revenue Impact
Nigeria’s taxpayer register has expanded dramatically from 10 million to 100 million, marking one of the most significant shifts in the country’s fiscal structure. While officials describe the development as a breakthrough in widening the tax net, analysts say the real test lies in whether this expansion will translate into actual tax payments or remain largely statistical.
The surge is tied to Nigeria’s ongoing tax reforms under the Nigeria Tax Act (NTA) 2025, which became effective in January 2026. The new system integrates taxpayer data with national identity numbers (NIN) and corporate records, creating a centralized database aimed at improving visibility across both formal and informal sectors. Authorities say the goal is to ensure inclusiveness while protecting low-income earners from excessive tax burdens.
Despite the technological upgrade, concerns remain about enforcement and compliance. Presidential Tax Committee Chairman Taiwo Oyedele confirmed the rapid increase in registered taxpayers, noting that thousands of informal businesses are now entering the tax system daily. However, tax experts such as Ajibola Sogunro of Forvis Mazars caution that registration does not automatically lead to higher revenue, especially without strong compliance mechanisms.
Nigeria’s revenue performance has improved in recent years, with tax collections reaching N28.3 trillion in 2025—above the government’s target of N25.2 trillion. Non-oil taxes contributed N21.5 trillion, while company income tax and VAT accounted for significant shares. However, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains around 13.5%, still below the African average of 16.1%, prompting the government’s ambition to raise it to 18% by 2027.
Experts argue that the real challenge lies in integrating Nigeria’s vast informal sector, which makes up more than half of the economy and employs over 90% of the workforce. While reforms such as e-invoicing, real-time transaction tracking, and a 1% turnover tax on larger informal businesses aim to improve compliance, analysts warn that sustained enforcement will determine whether the 100-million taxpayer milestone becomes a revenue breakthrough or a data-driven illusion.
source: Business day