Nigeria’s economy is entering 2026 with a mixed outlook as new fiscal policy measures ease import duties on essential goods, offering some relief to businesses and consumers. The 2026 Fiscal Policy Measures cut tariffs on key imports such as rice, sugar, salt, crude palm oil, and vehicles, aiming to reduce production costs and slow imported inflation. However, this relief is being quickly challenged by rising inflationary pressures that continue to weigh heavily on household budgets.
Despite the policy easing, inflation climbed again in March 2026, with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reporting headline inflation at 15.38%, up from 15.06% in February. While this marks a significant drop compared to 27.35% recorded in March 2025, the recent upward trend signals that price stability remains fragile. Food inflation also remains a major pressure point, rising to 14.31% year-on-year, driven by higher costs of staples such as yam, cassava, tomatoes, and potatoes.
Analysts at Futureview Research describe the current environment as a “mixed inflationary impulse,” where gains from lower import duties are being offset by persistent energy challenges. High global crude oil prices continue to push up fuel and diesel costs in Nigeria, keeping transportation and logistics expenses elevated. This, in turn, feeds directly into broader consumer prices, making everyday goods more expensive despite tariff reductions.
The report also warns that inflation could intensify around May 2026, when energy-related costs are expected to fully reflect in transportation and supply chains. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, already rose sharply to 16.21%, showing that underlying price pressures are strengthening. Analysts say this trend suggests that inflation is becoming more structural rather than temporary.
Looking ahead, concerns are growing over the planned Green Tax surcharge set for July 2026, which will target beverages, tobacco, and energy-intensive industries. Economists fear it could erase some of the benefits from earlier tariff cuts. Inflation pressure is also uneven across the country, with states like Bayelsa, Sokoto, and Bauchi recording the highest rates, while Osun and Kano experienced relatively lower price increases.
source: punch