Tier-One Banks Post N14.9 Trillion Earnings in 2025 as Interest Rate Pressures Shape Profit Outlook

Nigeria’s four major tier-one banks—Access Holdings, Zenith Bank, Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO), and United Bank for Africa (UBA)—recorded a combined gross earnings of N14.93 trillion in 2025, reflecting a 5.4% increase from the previous year.

The performance highlights continued resilience in the banking sector, despite growing concerns about profitability pressures linked to changing macroeconomic conditions and interest rate movements.

Among the lenders, Access Holdings led the pack, delivering N5.53 trillion in gross earnings, a strong 13.53% rise year-on-year. The group continues to reinforce its position as Nigeria’s largest banking group by earnings.

Zenith Bank followed with N4.19 trillion, representing steady growth of 5.54%, while GTCO posted a modest increase to N2.22 trillion, reflecting stable but slower expansion. In contrast, UBA recorded a decline to N3 trillion, down 5.84% compared to the previous year.

Financial analysts say the sector’s performance was largely supported by high interest rates, foreign exchange gains, and stronger non-interest income, rather than purely organic loan growth.

According to financial expert Uwem Olubummo of InvestingPort, while banks remain fundamentally strong, sustaining this momentum may be challenging. She noted that easing interest rates, rising loan defaults, and FX stability could reshape earnings dynamics in 2026, shifting focus back to core banking operations.

Cowry Asset Management echoed similar concerns, stressing that although tier-one banks posted impressive results, much of the growth was macro-driven, not operational. The firm warned that rising impairment charges and economic headwinds could weigh on future profitability.

Early 2026 indicators suggest continued momentum. Access Holdings started the year strongly with N1.4 trillion in Q1 earnings, followed by Zenith Bank with N1.01 trillion, and UBA posting N801.42 billion, all showing year-on-year growth.

Despite the strong numbers, analysts agree the next phase of banking performance will depend more on loan quality, cost efficiency, and sustainable income streams, as the industry transitions from windfall-driven earnings to fundamentals-led growth.

source: The Guardian