Egypt Inflation Eases to 14.9% Despite Oil Price Shocks and Middle East Tensions

Egypt’s inflation rate slowed in April 2026, offering a rare sign of relief for consumers after months of persistent price increases. According to new data released by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), annual urban inflation eased slightly to 14.9%, down from 15.2% in March, marking the first decline in three months.

The slowdown comes at a time when global economic pressure remains high, largely driven by ongoing Middle East tensions, including the Iran-linked conflict that has pushed up global oil prices. These external shocks have increased fuel costs, strained Egypt’s currency, and driven up transportation and food prices across the country.

Food and beverage inflation—the biggest component of Egypt’s consumer basket—continued to rise on a yearly basis, climbing 6.7%, the fastest increase in ten months. However, on a monthly basis, food prices actually fell by 0.7%, helping to ease overall inflation pressure compared to March’s sharper monthly jump of 3.2%.

Economists say the mixed inflation picture reflects competing forces in the economy. While electricity tariff increases, currency weakness, and rising commodity costs (especially poultry) are pushing prices higher, broader inflation has slowed from the extreme highs seen in 2023, when it peaked at 38%. Support from Egypt’s $8 billion IMF-backed programme has also helped stabilize conditions, although risks remain elevated.

At the same time, broader business activity in Egypt is weakening. A new S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report shows the non-oil private sector contracted further in April, falling to 46.6 from 48.0 in March—the weakest level since early 2023. Analysts warn that rising input costs and weak demand could keep inflation risks alive even as headline numbers improve slightly in the short term.

source: Business day