Nigeria Records First Food Price Drop in Over 13 Years as Inflation Eases Sharply
Nigeria’s inflation story took a surprising turn in September 2025, as the country recorded its first month-on-month food deflation in more than 13 years, a rare break in the long streak of rising prices. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), headline inflation eased to 18.02%, down from 20.12% in August, one of the steepest monthly declines in recent history. This unexpected moderation has sparked cautious optimism among households and analysts alike, after months of relentless cost-of-living pressures.
The biggest driver behind this turnaround was food inflation, which slowed to 16.87% from 21.87% in August. More notably, the month-on-month food inflation rate printed at -1.57%, signaling an actual fall in food prices for the first time since February 2012. This rare deflation, analysts say, reflects a mix of seasonal harvest effects, technical rebasing of inflation data, and favorable base-year comparisons — factors that temporarily cooled price pressures across major staples.
A deeper look into market data supports this trend. According to the Nairametrics Food Price Survey, prices of key staples such as pepper, rice, and mackerel fish fell sharply in September. A big bag of pepper dropped by 25%, averaging ₦60,000 compared to ₦80,000 in August, while a 50kg bag of local rice declined nearly 10% to ₦65,000. The price of a kilogram of mackerel fish also eased by 12.5%, selling around ₦6,000. Encouragingly, early October figures show further declines, with pepper now averaging ₦45,000 and rice around ₦57,000 per bag.
Experts attribute this relief to strong harvest yields across Nigeria’s key agricultural regions, which have boosted supply and moderated market demand pressures. The rebasing of the inflation basket by the NBS, which updates the goods and services used to measure inflation, also played a role by better reflecting current consumption habits. Together, these factors have brought a temporary break to the inflationary spiral that has gripped Nigeria for years, giving consumers a rare moment of financial breathing space.
However, economists warn that the trend may not last. The IMF projects Nigeria’s annual inflation at 23%, pointing to ongoing risks such as high transport costs, energy price volatility, and persistent currency depreciation. While September’s deflation is a positive sign, sustained improvement will depend on how well the government manages structural challenges in agriculture, logistics, and monetary policy. For now, Nigeria’s first food price drop in over a decade offers a glimmer of hope — and a reminder that with the right policies, stability is within reach.
source: nairametrics