Nigeria Inflation to Hit 16% in April as Fuel Price Surge Drives Cost Pressures – FDC

Nigeria’s inflation rate is expected to climb to 16 percent in April 2026, up from 15.38 percent recorded in March, according to analysts at the Financial Derivatives Company (FDC).

The economic advisory firm made the projection in its latest report, noting that inflationary pressure remains strong and could worsen further in the coming months. FDC also warned that inflation could rise between 17 and 20 percent by December 2026 if current trends persist.

According to the analysts, the recent spike in global fuel prices—triggered by the ongoing Middle East crisis—is a key driver of rising inflation in Nigeria. The surge has intensified cost pressures across fuel-importing economies, leading to higher transportation costs and increased food prices, especially for perishable goods.

The report highlighted that Nigeria, despite being an oil-producing country, has also felt the impact of global fuel market instability. It noted that petrol pump prices in Nigeria have increased by 59 percent, significantly higher than in countries such as South Africa (18 percent), Morocco (27 percent), Rwanda (48 percent), and Tanzania (37 percent).

Looking ahead, FDC analysts said the expected increase in government revenue from higher oil prices could inject more liquidity into the economy. However, they expect the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to continue tightening liquidity through Open Market Operations (OMO) and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) policies to manage inflation.

The report also stressed the need for a more sustainable pricing framework for fuel in Nigeria. It noted that the current Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) price of around N1,350 per litre remains “strangulating” for consumers, with broader implications for household spending and business costs.

source: newtelegraph