Nigeria Inflation Outlook: 7 Economists Predict Mixed Pressure Ahead of April NBS Report

As Nigerians await the April inflation data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), a survey of seven economists suggests that price pressures are likely to remain high, even with signs of slight moderation in recent months. Most analysts expect inflation to either stay elevated or record a modest increase, driven by persistent economic challenges.

According to the economists, key inflation drivers such as exchange rate instability, rising transportation and energy costs, and ongoing food supply disruptions continue to weigh heavily on household prices. These factors have kept the cost of living high despite government efforts to stabilize the economy.

Some analysts, including Cowry Assets Management’s Johnson Chukwu, project a slight uptick in inflation, estimating a range of 15.6% to 15.8%, largely due to increased energy and transportation costs. Similarly, CPPE’s Dr. Muda Yusuf and other economists pointed to rising fuel and shipping costs as major contributors, warning that inflation is likely to move upward, even if modestly.

However, not all economists agree on a sharp increase. Dr. Ayo Teriba of Economic Associates argued that improved economic fundamentals, including stronger foreign reserves and a booming stock market, may help stabilize prices. He expects little to no significant change in the April inflation figure, citing reduced pressure from fuel price movements due to alternative energy adoption.

On the other hand, Dr. Felix Echekoba of Nnamdi Azikiwe University and Zakari Mohammed of Auchi Polytechnic anticipate inflation could rise toward 16%, highlighting continued pressure from food, transport, rent, and exchange rate volatility. With March inflation already at 15.38%, Nigeria continues to face persistent inflationary strain, which economists say remains deeply tied to structural weaknesses in the economy.

source: nairametrics