Nigeria’s Oil Sector Contributes 3.92% to GDP in Q1 2026 Despite Improved Growth Performance
Nigeria’s oil sector accounted for 3.92% of the country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). While the sector recorded stronger growth compared to the same period last year, its overall contribution to the economy dipped slightly from 3.97% in Q1 2025, highlighting the continued dominance of non-oil activities in driving economic expansion.
The NBS report revealed that Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.89% year-on-year in Q1 2026, surpassing the 3.13% growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025. The oil sector posted a real growth rate of 2.57%, an improvement from 1.87% achieved a year earlier. However, despite the positive annual growth, the sector experienced a slower pace compared to the previous quarter, although quarter-on-quarter growth remained strong at 9.31%.
A closer look at production figures showed that Nigeria’s average daily crude oil output stood at 1.55 million barrels per day (mbpd) during the quarter. This represented a decline from 1.62 mbpd in Q1 2025 and was also below the 1.58 mbpd recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The lower production levels may have contributed to the sector’s marginally reduced share of GDP despite its improved growth performance.
Beyond oil, the broader economy continued to draw strength from key sectors such as agriculture, industry, and services. The industry sector expanded by 3.50%, slightly higher than the 3.42% growth recorded a year earlier, while the services sector grew by 4.31%. Services remained the largest contributor to economic activity, accounting for 57.73% of total GDP, up from 57.50% in the corresponding period of 2025. Agriculture also recorded improved performance, reinforcing its importance to economic stability and food production.
Meanwhile, the non-oil sector maintained its overwhelming influence on Nigeria’s economy, contributing 96.08% of total real GDP in the first quarter. Growth in telecommunications, crop production, trade, manufacturing, financial services, real estate, construction, and transportation continued to fuel economic expansion. However, analysts caution that Nigeria’s growth outlook remains vulnerable to global uncertainties, particularly ongoing tensions in the Middle East and weaker international economic projections. Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast downward to 4.1%, warning that prolonged geopolitical instability could disrupt oil markets, increase inflationary pressures, and affect trade flows across oil-dependent economies.
source: Nairametrics