Nigeria Poised to Surpass IMF’s 3% Growth Forecast for 2025, Say Market Experts
Despite the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting Nigeria’s economy to grow by 3.0% in 2025—a slight revision from its earlier 3.2% forecast—market analysts believe the country may outperform this estimate. Speaking on a recent episode of the Drinks and Mics show, experts pointed to robust performance in Nigeria’s capital markets and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings as signs of a healthier economy than the IMF assumes.
Arnold Dublin-Green of Cordros Capital challenged the IMF’s outlook, noting that external analysts often miss local economic nuances. He argued that on-the-ground realities, such as fragmented sectors and informal market dynamics, make domestic forecasting more insightful. He suggested the IMF may not be factoring in certain structural strengths and localized developments that are buoying growth.
Adding to the skepticism, Opeyemi Aiku of TotalEnergies emphasized that the IMF’s caution over oil prices and currency depreciation fails to consider Nigeria’s resilience and policy adaptability. She also pointed out the neglect of security and social factors that could play a pivotal role in unlocking more growth, especially given recent improvements in the corporate sector and capital inflows.
In contrast to the IMF’s modest outlook, the Nigerian stock market is showing clear signs of momentum. The All-Share Index (ASI) bounced back from a mid-April slump, gaining over 2.5% by early May 2025. The recovery was driven by strong Q1 earnings from major players like BUA Foods, MTN, and Dangote Cement, bolstering investor confidence and suggesting that corporate Nigeria is in better shape than many expected.
While the IMF acknowledged Nigeria’s recent economic reforms—such as fuel subsidy removal, FX liberalization, and halting central bank deficit financing—it maintains that these gains haven’t fully trickled down to the average Nigerian. Nonetheless, with investor sentiment on the rise and local analysts forecasting stronger fundamentals, there’s a growing case for Nigeria to exceed the IMF’s conservative 3% growth estimate in 2025.
Source: Nairametrics