Petrol Prices May Drop to N800/Litre as Dangote Refinery Slashes Rates Amid Falling Crude Prices

Petrol prices in Nigeria could soon fall to around N800 per litre due to a combination of declining global crude oil prices and the revival of the naira-for-crude policy. Analysts say that if crude hits $50 per barrel and dependence on foreign exchange is reduced, the local pump price could decrease significantly. Dangote Petroleum Refinery has already slashed its ex-depot price for PMS to N835 per litre — its second reduction within a week — to make fuel more affordable.

The price adjustment, confirmed by Dangote Group’s communications team, reflects a 3.5% decrease from the previous rate and is part of a series of reductions the refinery has implemented in recent weeks. These changes also extend to diesel and jet fuel pricing. Partners of Dangote Refinery, including MRS, AP, and Heyden, have responded by lowering pump prices nationwide, with new regional retail rates ranging from N890 to N920 per litre.

The Federal Government has also resumed the naira-for-crude policy, a strategic move aimed at easing the pressure on foreign exchange and boosting domestic refining capacity. Under this policy, crude is exchanged directly for refined products in local currency. This initiative, supported by the Ministry of Finance and NNPC, is expected to enhance energy security, stabilize supply, and bring down fuel costs over time.

However, despite these efforts, many retail outlets have yet to reflect the lower prices, frustrating consumers. While marketers recognize the cost benefits of the new crude supply policy, concerns remain about the impact of rapid price shifts on profitability and sector stability. Experts suggest that without policy interruptions, the price of petrol could already be near N700/litre — a change that would have significantly reduced consumer burdens and stimulated wider economic relief.

source: punch