Nigeria recorded a marginal improvement in its all-commodity terms of trade (ToT), which rose by 0.01 per cent in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The slight increase came alongside a 0.12 per cent rise in export values during the same period, signaling a modest boost in external trade performance.
The report shows that Nigeria’s import activity also grew, with import and export indices increasing by 0.11 per cent and 0.12 per cent respectively between October and December 2025. Despite the improvement, the movement remains weak, reflecting a largely stable but slow-changing trade environment for Africa’s largest economy.
The terms of trade measure the relationship between export prices and import prices. When the figure rises above 100 per cent, it indicates that a country is earning more value from exports relative to what it spends on imports. In Nigeria’s case, the Q4 figure stood at 102.27 per cent in October, 102.21 per cent in November, and 102.28 per cent in December, showing minor month-to-month fluctuations but an overall slight improvement by quarter-end.
However, earlier in 2025, the performance was mixed. The ToT rose by 0.05 per cent in Q1 but declined by 0.46 per cent in Q2 and 0.1 per cent in Q3 before stabilizing in Q4. Economists often interpret such volatility as a sign of external pressure on purchasing power, especially in import-dependent economies like Nigeria.
In trade breakdowns, the report revealed that Nigeria exported goods worth N1.36 trillion to France, representing 7.19 per cent of total exports. Crude petroleum remained the dominant export commodity, valued at N893.76 billion, followed by natural gas at N218.6 billion. Interestingly, Nigeria also imported postage stamps worth N11.4 billion from France during the period, highlighting the diverse nature of bilateral trade flows.
Overall, while the slight increase in terms of trade suggests some stabilization, analysts may view the gains as too small to signal strong economic momentum. The data points instead to a delicate balance between export earnings and import costs, with energy exports continuing to anchor Nigeria’s external trade performance.
source: The Guardian