Africa Needs Two More Dangote-Scale Refineries to Close Fuel Import Gap – AFC Report
Africa will need at least two more refineries the size of the Dangote Refinery to keep up with its fast-growing fuel demand, according to a new report by the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC). The projection was revealed in the State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report (SAIR) 2026, presented in Nairobi, Kenya, during the Africa We Build Summit.
The report highlights a major structural challenge: Africa still imports about 70% of the refined fuel it consumes. With demand expected to rise by 56% by 2040, the continent could face an import gap of about 86 million tonnes. According to AFC’s Chief Economist, Rita Babihuga-Nsanze, closing this gap would require at least two additional large-scale refineries similar to the Dangote Refinery.
Beyond fuel supply, the report argues that Africa’s biggest problem is not a lack of resources or funding, but weak systems that fail to connect them. It estimates that the continent holds over $4 trillion in domestic capital, yet much of it remains underused due to poor financial intermediation and limited long-term investment structures.
The AFC also warns that external financing is shrinking, with development aid to Africa falling by 23% in 2025. However, it stresses that stronger mobilisation of domestic capital could fill the gap if better directed toward infrastructure, energy, and industrial projects. The report also calls for a shift away from exporting raw materials toward building integrated transport and industrial systems.
On energy specifically, the report notes that Africa is still adding only 6.5 to 8 gigawatts of power annually—far below the estimated 20 gigawatts needed for development. It calls for regional power integration, stronger private sector participation, and expanded infrastructure to support both households and industries. AFC President Samaila Zubairu added that Africa must stop importing what it has the capacity to produce, stressing that the real challenge is turning resources into productive economic systems.
source: Business day