Nigeria’s China Zero-Tariff Deal Faces Reality Check as Experts Demand Shift to Value-Added Exports
More than a month after Nigeria was included in China’s zero-tariff arrangement for African exports, expectations are rising—but so are concerns. While the policy is designed to boost trade, many Nigerian exports are still stuck in low-value raw materials, raising questions about how much real benefit the country can unlock in the short term.
At the core of the policy are technical trade rules such as Rules of Origin and quota systems, which determine what qualifies for tariff-free access. Under the arrangement, only goods within quota limits enjoy zero tariffs, while excess exports still attract duties. However, many Nigerian exporters lack the compliance systems and documentation capacity needed to fully take advantage of these provisions.
Analysts say tariffs were never the biggest barrier to Nigeria’s export growth. Even before the new policy, a large share of African goods already entered China duty-free or at very low rates. Instead, deeper issues such as poor logistics, weak certification systems, limited industrial processing, and lack of access to finance continue to weaken Nigeria’s competitiveness in global markets.
At a recent Africa–China trade webinar, experts urged African countries, including Nigeria, to move beyond raw commodity exports and invest in manufacturing and value addition. Sectors such as cocoa processing, coffee production, textiles, green minerals, and creative industries were highlighted as key areas that could significantly increase export earnings if properly developed. They also stressed that meeting China’s strict quality standards remains a major hurdle for exporters.
Trade data shows the imbalance clearly: bilateral trade between Nigeria and China reached about $24 billion in 2025, but imports from China accounted for roughly $20 billion of that total. Although Nigeria’s exports to China have grown by 81% over three years to $3.17 billion, they remain heavily dependent on raw commodities. Experts warn that without strong industrial capacity and export reforms, Nigeria risks missing the real opportunity behind the zero-tariff policy.
source: The Guardian