The recent dip in output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has triggered a notable rise in fuel imports across West Africa, particularly in Nigeria and Togo. According to new data from S&P Global, gasoline imports to the region jumped from 200,000 barrels per day in January to over 300,000 b/d in March, before easing slightly to 250,000 b/d in April—nearly matching Nigeria’s entire national demand. This spike is directly tied to maintenance activity at the Dangote facility, even though the company initially denied shutting down its gasoline unit.
A Dangote executive later confirmed that the refinery had undergone a four-week turnaround to address design-related issues. They explained that the site was now ramping up operations of its Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC), alkylation, and polypropylene units. However, they also noted that a second maintenance event might be needed later this year, depending on ongoing evaluations. The RFCC is key to gasoline production, and its temporary shutdown in April significantly influenced international fuel prices.
The situation has had wider implications for global energy markets. With approximately 100,000 b/d of output suddenly offline in April, the Eurobob gasoline price surged. The Dangote plant, which had previously reached 70% RFCC capacity following its test runs in late 2024, is targeting full capacity soon—aiming to process 650,000 b/d of crude. Despite setbacks, the refinery continued to export other fuels such as jet fuel and gasoil, minimizing overall disruption.
Meanwhile, the fuel import chain has shifted noticeably toward Togo, particularly offshore Lome, where large cargoes are being broken down and distributed via smaller vessels. This logistical choice is partly driven by efforts to minimize tax liabilities and maintain access to USD transactions—an increasingly appealing option as Nigeria pushes for more trade in naira. Reduced freight costs have also made imports more viable for West African markets.
Looking forward, S&P Global forecasts that a potential RFCC turnaround in June could support global gasoline margins by around $3 per barrel. While the Dangote refinery has exceeded early expectations since commissioning the RFCC in September 2024, the repeated outages in 2025 have caused instability in fuel supply forecasts. The full stabilization of its operations remains a key factor for both domestic energy security and regional fuel pricing dynamics.
Source: Punch