Nigeria Inflation Set to Rise Again as FMDA Projects 16.42% April Rate Amid Food and Energy Pressures

Nigeria’s inflation outlook is once again turning upward, as the Financial Market Dealers Association (FMDA) projects that headline inflation will climb to 16.42% year-on-year in April 2026. The report points to persistent pressure from rising food costs, higher energy prices, and global commodity shocks that continue to shape the country’s cost-of-living challenges.

According to the FMDA Inflation Forecast released on May 13, 2026, inflation is expected to settle at 2.78% month-on-month in April, a slowdown from March’s 4.18%. However, analysts warn that the yearly increase signals a reversal of Nigeria’s recent disinflation trend, which had earlier pushed inflation down from a peak of 27.35% in March 2025 to as low as 15.06% in February 2026 before climbing again.

The report highlights fuel and food prices as key drivers of inflationary pressure. Average petrol prices rose to N1,322.50 in April from N1,208.38 in March, while staple foods such as yam, maize, millet, and sorghum recorded noticeable increases. Even though the naira appreciated slightly during the period, the gains were not strong enough to offset rising domestic costs.

On the global stage, inflationary pressures are also intensifying. Brent crude oil surged to $120.4 per barrel in April, while food and energy indices from the World Bank and FAO continued to climb. Countries including the United States, Kenya, and Ghana also recorded higher inflation, reflecting a broader global cost surge that is spilling into import-dependent economies like Nigeria.

Despite these pressures, the FMDA notes that some moderation in monthly inflation and slower fuel price increases could help limit further spikes in the near term. However, economists warn that continued global energy shocks and rising food import costs may keep inflation elevated, placing additional pressure on Nigeria’s monetary policy decisions in the coming months.

source: nairametrics