The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has retained its forecast that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.1 percent in 2026, offering a positive signal for the country’s economic recovery. However, the global lender cautioned that millions of Nigerians may continue to face hardship as rising prices of food and other essential commodities threaten to deepen poverty and worsen food insecurity across the country.
In its July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF projected that Nigeria’s growth rate would improve slightly to 4.3 percent in 2027, reflecting gains from ongoing economic reforms and improved macroeconomic stability. The institution noted that favorable trade conditions and recent policy adjustments have helped strengthen economic fundamentals, but warned that these gains may not immediately translate into improved living conditions for many households struggling with the high cost of living.
According to the IMF, soaring prices of essential goods remain one of the biggest challenges facing Nigerians. While the broader economy is expected to expand, many families continue to grapple with rising food costs, transportation expenses, and other daily necessities. The fund stressed that without targeted measures to protect vulnerable citizens, higher prices could further aggravate poverty levels and increase food insecurity, especially among low-income households.
The report also highlighted concerns about the global economy, lowering its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.1 percent to 3 percent. The IMF attributed the downgrade to ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the conflict in the Middle East, as well as uncertainties surrounding global trade and financial markets. Despite these challenges, the institution said advances in artificial intelligence and technology-driven investments are helping to support growth in several regions around the world.
To strengthen resilience, the IMF urged Nigeria and other countries to focus on sound fiscal management, improve revenue generation, strengthen tax administration, and invest in critical sectors such as infrastructure, education, and social protection. The fund also encouraged policymakers to accelerate structural reforms that can boost productivity, attract investment, create jobs, and ensure that economic growth translates into tangible benefits for citizens. As Nigeria pursues its growth ambitions, the IMF’s warning serves as a reminder that economic expansion alone may not be enough if rising living costs continue to erode household welfare.
source: The cable