Nigeria Earns N70tn from Oil Exports Despite Weak Output and Sector Challenges

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Nigeria has generated a substantial N70.1 trillion in oil export revenue over a 15-month period from January 2024 to March 2025, despite underwhelming crude oil production and long-standing challenges in the energy sector. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the nation achieved this income largely due to favorable global oil prices and a weakened naira, which boosted the value of exports in local currency terms.

The oil and gas sector, while plagued by issues such as oil theft, underinvestment, and aging infrastructure, remained the dominant source of export earnings. In the first quarter of 2024, crude oil exports made up 80.8% of total exports, valued at N15.49 trillion. Though there was a slight dip in Q2 to N14.56 trillion, the figure still marked a dramatic year-on-year increase from Q2 2023. Export values fluctuated slightly over the rest of the year but remained high, supported by an average Brent crude price of $80 per barrel.

Despite export growth, Nigeria continued to produce below its OPEC quota, averaging around 1.4 million barrels per day. Output has rarely exceeded 1.5 million bpd in recent years, excluding condensates, due to structural issues. By Q1 2025, oil export value declined to N12.96 trillion, representing a 16.3% drop from the same period in 2024. Nonetheless, oil remained Nigeria’s most valuable export commodity.

Analysts and institutions such as the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) have flagged the risks of overdependence on oil. While the short-term gains are significant, the long-term fiscal outlook remains precarious due to volatile global energy markets and Nigeria’s narrow export base.

With over 37 billion barrels in proven reserves and 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, Nigeria’s export potential remains vast. However, experts argue that sustainable growth will require comprehensive reforms to improve infrastructure, curb theft, attract investment, and diversify the economy away from oil dependency. Recent improvements, though modest, are fragile and will need strategic support to ensure long-term stability.

Source: This Day

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