The Global Recession Drum Beat Is Getting Louder.

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Sharply higher interest rates, red-hot inflation and a prolonged energy crisis are leading to conviction; that the world economy is headed inexorably towards recession.

It’s a risk U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde have acknowledged even if neither considers it a baseline scenario. Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell rejects the notion.

Paul O’Connor, head of the multi-asset team at Janus Henderson, notes that since 1955 “the U.S. Economy has always experienced a recession within two years from every quarter in which inflation was above 4%; and unemployment was below 5%, as they are today.”

The International Monetary Fund this week warned inflation and war may push the world economy to the brink of recession.


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