Nigeria’s stock market could face a turbulent second half of 2026 as investors prepare for the highly anticipated Dangote Refinery IPO while political activities ahead of the 2027 general elections continue to gather momentum. Market operators believe these two major developments will significantly influence investor sentiment, trading patterns, and overall market performance in the coming months.
Analysts say the proposed listing of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals on the Nigerian Exchange is likely to be the most influential event in the equities market this year. According to Executive Director of Halo Capital Management Limited, Dr. Paul Uzum, the refinery is expected to raise about $5 billion through its public offering, making it one of the largest capital market transactions in Nigeria’s history. The size of the offer is expected to trigger widespread portfolio reshuffling as investors sell existing holdings to free up funds for the IPO.
This anticipated rush into the Dangote Refinery offer could place temporary pressure on stock prices across the market, resulting in a bearish trend over the next few months. However, experts believe the release of half-year corporate earnings and interim dividend announcements by listed companies could provide some support and restore confidence among investors. Strong financial performances from major firms may help cushion the market against some of the expected volatility.
Beyond the IPO, growing political activities ahead of the 2027 elections are also emerging as a key concern. Market watchers warn that election-related uncertainty could prompt foreign investors to reduce their exposure to Nigerian equities, a pattern often observed before major elections. In addition, politicians seeking campaign funding may increase share sales, adding further pressure to the market and contributing to short-term fluctuations.
Despite these challenges, investment experts remain optimistic about the market’s medium-term outlook. Vice President of Highcap Securities Limited, David Adonri, noted that historical market cycles suggest the current correction could be followed by a gradual recovery in the third quarter. He added that strong second-quarter earnings, combined with the eventual completion of the Dangote Refinery IPO, could attract fresh domestic and foreign investment, deepen market liquidity, and spark a significant rally. For many investors, the coming months may test patience, but analysts believe the market could emerge stronger once the dust settles.
source: The Guardian
