Nigeria’s Non-Oil Export Drive Gains Momentum Amid Push for Long-Term Economic Stability

Nigeria recorded a strong external trade performance in the first quarter of 2026, posting a trade surplus of ₦7.55 trillion, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Total merchandise trade stood at ₦34.79 trillion, with exports accounting for ₦21.17 trillion and imports at ₦13.62 trillion. While the figures reflect improved foreign exchange earnings and reduced import pressure, analysts say the gains still rest heavily on crude oil revenues.

Crude oil remained the backbone of Nigeria’s export earnings, contributing ₦11.20 trillion or 52.92 percent of total exports. Non-oil exports, however, made up ₦9.97 trillion, signaling gradual progress in diversification efforts. Within this segment, non-oil products contributed ₦3.19 trillion, highlighting both progress and the long road ahead in reducing dependence on hydrocarbons for foreign exchange stability.

Despite the positive trade balance, experts warn that Nigeria’s external position remains vulnerable to global oil market shocks, production disruptions, and shifting energy demand. Economists argue that strengthening non-oil exports is no longer optional but essential for long-term macroeconomic stability, especially as global inflation trends and geopolitical tensions continue to shape commodity markets.

Agriculture, manufacturing, and solid minerals remain central to Nigeria’s diversification ambitions, but each sector presents mixed outcomes. Agricultural exports fell by 31.2 percent year-on-year despite ₦2.00 trillion in trade value, while manufacturing exports remained weak at just ₦302.64 billion. In contrast, solid minerals recorded a sharp 74.63 percent increase, driven by rising global demand for critical resources like lithium and gold.

Analysts from Cowry Research and Cordros Research note that Nigeria’s trade surplus may remain positive in the short term, supported by oil earnings, domestic refining improvements, and import constraints. However, they emphasize that sustainable growth depends on building a stronger non-oil export base through value-added agriculture, competitive manufacturing, and mineral processing. As one expert put it, Nigeria’s economic future will depend not just on oil strength, but on how quickly it can diversify its export engine.

source: The sun