OPEC+ Approves 188,000 bpd Oil Production Increase Amid UAE Exit and Market Uncertainty

OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in June, even as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) officially exits the oil-producing alliance. The decision was reached during a virtual meeting on Sunday, reflecting the group’s attempt to maintain balance in a market currently shaped by uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

According to the cartel, seven member countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will carry out the adjustment as part of earlier voluntary production cuts agreed in April 2023. While the move signals coordination within the group, analysts note that the actual impact on global supply may be limited due to ongoing export bottlenecks, especially around critical shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz.

OPEC+ acknowledged that real output gains may not fully materialize, as crude production across the group has already been under pressure. In March, output reportedly dropped sharply by 27.5% to 20.79 million bpd, highlighting deeper supply instability. Despite this, the alliance continues its gradual effort to restore production levels paused during earlier market interventions.

The announcement comes at a sensitive moment following the UAE’s formal departure from OPEC+ on May 1, after years of disagreement over production quotas and strategic control. The exit underscores growing internal divisions within the alliance, particularly between Gulf producers, even as global oil markets remain fragile and highly reactive to geopolitical risks.

Looking ahead, OPEC+ is expected to meet again on June 7 to reassess its production strategy. Meanwhile, the UAE is positioning itself for a more independent path, backed by large-scale investments in its national oil company, Adnoc, signaling a long-term push for expanded production capacity outside OPEC+ constraints.

source: nairametrics