Oil Price Surge Adds N5.13 Trillion Windfall to Nigeria’s Revenue, but Fuels Rising Cost of Living

Nigeria has recorded a major fiscal boost after a sharp rise in global crude oil prices pushed government oil earnings above projections by more than N5.13 trillion within just two months. The surge, triggered by geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran, has lifted Nigeria’s revenue outlook far beyond its 2026 budget assumptions.

Global oil prices climbed steeply from below $70 per barrel in February to peaks above $120, with Brent crude currently trading around $110 and Nigeria’s Bonny Light reaching as high as $134. The rally has been driven more by price shocks than production increases, giving oil-exporting countries like Nigeria a temporary revenue advantage.

Despite production averaging below budget expectations, Nigeria benefited significantly from the price boom. March alone generated an estimated N1.19 trillion in extra revenue, while April delivered an even larger windfall of about N3.94 trillion, as both output and prices improved. Together, the two months produced a combined surplus of N5.13 trillion.

However, the revenue gain has come with a heavy domestic cost. Higher crude prices have pushed up petrol prices across the country, with filling stations now selling between N1,350 and N1,400 per litre following adjustments linked to crude price increases and refinery pricing changes. This has intensified inflationary pressure and increased transport and food costs for households.

Industry stakeholders and economists warn that while the windfall strengthens government finances in the short term, it exposes Nigeria’s vulnerability to global oil market volatility. Experts are calling for targeted relief measures, domestic pricing reforms, and stronger data systems to cushion citizens from the impact of rising fuel costs as the geopolitical situation remains uncertain.