Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to rise in March 2026, signaling an end to nearly a year of easing price pressures, as the ripple effects of the escalating US-Iran conflict hit global energy and food markets. Analysts say the surge could complicate monetary policy decisions for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), especially ahead of its next policy meeting. The anticipated increase highlights how global geopolitical tensions are quickly translating into everyday costs for Nigerians.
According to analysts at Cordros Research, headline inflation is expected to climb to 15.4 percent year-on-year in March, up from 15.06 percent recorded in February. On a month-on-month basis, inflation is forecast to jump sharply to 4.2 percent, compared to 2.01 percent previously. The rise is largely driven by higher food prices, increased energy costs, and continued volatility in the exchange rate, reversing recent gains in price stability.
Food inflation remains a major concern for households, with staple items such as rice, beans, tomatoes, onions, and yams recording noticeable price increases. These hikes are linked to seasonal farming cycles and heightened demand during the fasting period, alongside persistent supply challenges. Data from the World Bank also shows a steady increase in food prices, reinforcing concerns that many Nigerians may continue to feel the strain of rising living costs.
Energy prices have also surged significantly, with petrol prices rising from around N1,051 per litre in February to between N1,200 and N1,300 in March. This increase, driven by higher global oil prices amid Middle East tensions, is expected to push up transportation and logistics costs, further feeding into overall inflation. At the same time, the naira weakened to N1,379.98 per dollar, adding pressure by making imports more expensive.
While most analysts agree that inflation is trending upward, some remain cautiously optimistic. Lukman Otunuga of FXTM suggests inflation could still ease to around 13.4 percent, pointing to underlying signs of moderation. If that scenario plays out, it could open the door for monetary easing by the CBN. However, with geopolitical risks still looming, the outlook for Nigeria’s inflation remains uncertain, leaving both policymakers and consumers watching closely.
source: Business day