Fitch Upgrades Ghana’s 2025 Growth Forecast to 4.9% Amid Economic Stability and Strong Agricultural Recovery
Fitch Solutions has raised Ghana’s 2025 economic growth forecast to 4.9%, up from its earlier projection of 4.2%, citing signs of improving macroeconomic stability, easing inflation, and a relatively firm Ghanaian cedi. The UK-based research firm noted in its September 2025 Monthly Outlook that Ghana’s recovery remains on track, even as the country continues to navigate challenges such as high interest rates, fiscal consolidation, and stagnant oil production.
According to Fitch, Ghana’s stronger outlook follows a robust first-quarter performance, with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 5.3% year-on-year, driven mainly by improved agricultural output. The agricultural sector’s resilience, combined with better price stability, has positioned Ghana as one of West Africa’s more promising economies heading into 2026.
The firm expects Ghana’s growth to remain steady at around 5.0% in 2026, supported by declining inflation, potential monetary policy easing, and increased public expenditure as the country’s IMF-supported reform program nears completion. The Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) recently reported that growth moderated slightly to 4.5% in July 2025, compared to 8.3% in the same period last year, though the agricultural sector surged by 8.0%, marking a significant rebound from 2.4% in July 2024.
Fitch also forecasts inflation to ease to 8.0% by the end of 2025, down from 11.5% in August — its lowest level in four years. Analysts believe that a stable currency, coupled with lower global energy prices, will strengthen consumer confidence and spur domestic demand in the coming months.
While Fitch’s forecast is higher than the IMF’s 4.0% and the Ghanaian government’s 4.4% growth targets, the agency cautioned that maintaining momentum will depend on fiscal discipline, continued structural reforms, and exchange rate stability. The upward revision signals growing investor confidence in Ghana’s economy, supported by credible policies, resilient agriculture, and gradual improvements in inflation management.
source: citi newsroom