For the first time ever, the United States is on track to make oil its foremost export good, underlining the growing influence of American oil exports on the global market. The Energy Information Administration predicts record-high production for 2023 and 2024, with the US oil supply offsetting some OPEC+ cuts. This surge in production has been propelled by the lifting of the US crude export ban in 2015.
Key Points:
- Record Output Projection: The Energy Information Administration anticipates US crude oil production to reach an average of 12.92 million barrels per day in 2023 and 13.12 million barrels per day in 2024, establishing new records.
- Unprecedented Export Volumes: Oil exports from the US have reached an all-time high, averaging 3.99 million barrels per day in the first half of 2023, up almost 20 percent from the previous year.
- Top Export Category: Analysis based on US Census Bureau data reveals that US oil exports took the lead in all export categories in America’s global trade through August this year and are expected to maintain this position for the entire year of 2023 — a first in history.
- Global Impact of US Crude: Despite the typical lighter and sweeter nature of American crude compared to premium grades from other regions, US exports have played a significant role in offsetting OPEC+ cuts, a trend especially pronounced in recent years.
- Major Export Destinations: Europe accounted for 1.75 million barrels per day of US crude oil exports in the first half of 2023, led by exports to the Netherlands and the UK. Asia followed closely with 1.68 million barrels per day, driven by exports to China and South Korea.
Conclusion: The surge in US oil exports, a result of increased production since the export ban lift in 2015, marks a significant shift in global trade dynamics. American oil is not only meeting global demand but also impacting global pricing benchmarks. This historic milestone underscores the United States’ growing influence in the international oil market.
