Nigeria’s exports to African countries surged to N10.72tn in the first half of 2026, representing a 122.26 per cent increase from the N4.82tn recorded in the same period of 2025. However, the sharp rise in naira value may not tell the full story, as economists warn that currency depreciation and inflation could be making the growth appear larger in naira terms. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the increase was driven largely by crude oil, refined petroleum products, gas and other energy-related commodities.
Oil and gas products accounted for approximately 94.75 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to Africa in H1 2026, with the combined value estimated at N10.15tn. This was higher than the 90.24 per cent share recorded in H1 2025. The oil and gas value chain grew by 133.36 per cent during the period, outpacing overall export growth. In contrast, identifiable non-oil products such as cement, cigarettes, tyres, vessels and food preparations declined from about N309.46bn to N296.61bn, highlighting the limited contribution of non-oil exports to the continent’s trade.
The development has renewed debate over Nigeria’s dependence on petroleum exports, particularly following the entry of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery into the export market. Economic Associates CEO, Dr Ayo Teriba, said naira-denominated figures should be interpreted cautiously because currency depreciation can increase the local-currency value of exports without a corresponding increase in dollar earnings. Trade expert and Alpine Supply Chain Solutions CEO, Marcel Mba, similarly attributed a significant part of the increase to refined petroleum products and petrochemicals, while noting that products such as cement, beverages, vehicles and tiles could also be contributing to non-oil trade.
Nigeria’s export growth has also exposed concerns about the country’s manufacturing capacity. The Nigerian Economic Summit Group reported that manufactured goods accounted for only 0.9 per cent of Nigeria’s intra-African trade in Q1 2026, down from 2.0 per cent in Q3 2025. Manufacturers Association of Nigeria Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, also pointed to high energy costs, elevated borrowing rates, exchange-rate pressures and other production challenges as constraints on industrial competitiveness. Analysts say expanding domestic production and value addition will be important if Nigeria is to take greater advantage of the African Continental Free Trade Area.
Further NBS data showed that Nigeria’s exports to Africa reached N6.65tn in Q2 2026 alone, with Togo, South Africa, Ivory Coast, Ghana and Egypt accounting for 74.75 per cent of the quarter’s exports. Crude petroleum oils led individual commodities at N3.23tn, representing 48.58 per cent of Q2 exports, followed by gas oil at N1.32tn, kerosene-type jet fuel at N975.37bn and ordinary motor spirit at N416.78bn. The figures underscore the growing scale of Nigeria’s trade with Africa while also highlighting the need to broaden exports beyond crude oil and petroleum products.
source: punch