Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE could be worth significantly more than its proposed listing valuation, with two Nigerian investment firms independently putting its value between N77.7 trillion and N82.6 trillion ahead of its planned Initial Public Offering (IPO) on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).
The valuations from CardinalStone Research and Chapel Hill Denham are higher than the refinery’s indicative post-offer market capitalisation of N65.22 trillion. Under the proposed IPO, Dangote Refinery plans to offer 4.1 billion new shares at N525 each, potentially raising about N2.15 trillion if the offer is fully subscribed.
CardinalStone has assigned a 12-month equity valuation of N77.7 trillion, while Chapel Hill Denham estimates the refinery’s current fair equity value at $62.53 billion, equivalent to about N82.62 trillion at an exchange rate of N1,321.22 to the dollar. Both firms’ valuations are largely based on expectations of stronger earnings as the refinery increases production and expands its operations.
The refinery’s financial performance has already shown signs of improvement. Dangote Refinery recorded $13.91 billion in revenue and $1.82 billion in profit after tax in the first half of 2026, compared with a full-year loss of $475.8 million in 2025. The company also plans to expand its refining capacity from 700,000 barrels per day to about 1.4 million barrels per day, with the expansion estimated to cost $14.27 billion.
For investors, however, the higher analyst valuations do not automatically mean the N525 IPO price will rise after listing. The refinery’s future value will depend on its ability to grow earnings, maintain strong refining margins, operate efficiently and successfully execute its expansion plans. The IPO is scheduled to open on September 14 and close on October 13, 2026, with trading expected to begin on the NGX in late November. Retail investors can participate with a minimum subscription of 10 shares, costing N5,250.
source: nairametrics
