OPEC+ is expected to keep its oil production policy unchanged for October as disruptions linked to the Iran war continue to restrict crude supplies from the Gulf, according to sources familiar with the group’s plans. The decision is expected to be taken during an online meeting of seven key OPEC+ members on Sunday, as the oil market remains highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman are scheduled to meet at 11:00 GMT. The group has spent much of 2026 gradually increasing monthly production quotas, completing in September the planned rollback of 1.65 million barrels per day in supply cuts agreed in 2023. However, higher quotas have not translated into an equivalent increase in actual oil reaching the global market.
The ongoing conflict involving Iran has disrupted Gulf exports through the Strait of Hormuz, while the war in Ukraine continues to affect crude shipments from Russia and Kazakhstan. OPEC production increased by 1.17 million barrels per day in July, but output still remained below the group’s production targets. With physical supply now being shaped heavily by geopolitical disruptions, OPEC+ production decisions have less influence on prices and market share than before the conflict.
Oil prices have consequently remained elevated, with Brent crude trading around $94 per barrel on Wednesday as renewed U.S.-Iran fighting and attacks on tankers heightened concerns over Gulf oil supplies. For consumers, businesses and oil-importing economies, prolonged disruption around one of the world’s key shipping routes could keep pressure on energy prices and raise concerns about broader inflation.
Beyond October, OPEC+ is also facing an important debate over production baselines for 2027. A review by Dallas-based petroleum consulting firm DeGolyer and MacNaughton is expected later this month and will help determine the production capacity used to calculate future quotas. Iraq is seeking a higher quota to reflect increased capacity, while Venezuela is considering leaving the group, adding another layer of uncertainty to the future direction of OPEC+ and the global oil market.
source: oilprice
