Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen below its recent average, even as crude oil flows through the strategically important waterway show signs of recovery. Preliminary ship-tracking data cited by Reuters showed that only seven commodity vessels crossed the strait on Thursday, down from 17 vessels recorded a day earlier and below the 10-day average of 15 vessels.
The decline in shipping activity highlights the uncertainty surrounding one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints. Data from maritime intelligence firm Windward put Thursday’s traffic at six tankers, with three reportedly operating in “dark mode” to avoid detection. Four tankers entered the strait, while two exited, pointing to continued caution among operators navigating the route.
Despite the weaker tanker traffic, oil flows through Hormuz appear to be improving. Bloomberg reported that between 6 million and 8 million barrels of oil per day were moving out of the chokepoint, based on estimates from traders. Goldman Sachs also estimated that oil flows had recovered to about two-thirds of pre-war levels, suggesting that regional producers are finding ways to keep crude moving despite the disruption.
Analysts at ING said more Persian Gulf producers were beginning to move crude through the strait, while others were increasingly selling oil outside the waterway. The development suggests that oil markets are gradually adapting to the disruption around Hormuz. However, crude prices remain under upward pressure as expectations of renewed peace talks between Tehran and Washington weaken.
Meanwhile, attention is also turning to Venezuela and OPEC, amid speculation that Caracas could eventually leave the oil producers’ group following increased U.S. control over its oil industry. Such a move could eventually support higher Venezuelan production, but analysts caution that a rapid increase is unlikely. Years of declining output mean Venezuela and its U.S. partners would need significant time and investment to rebuild production capacity.
source: oilprice
