China’s oil imports are expected to rebound in the final quarter of 2026 as refiners increase purchases and search for alternative sources of crude amid ongoing disruptions in the Middle East. Energy consultancies estimate that China could raise its crude imports by about 1.2 million barrels per day from current levels, although purchases are still expected to remain below the highs recorded before the war.
Analysts from Rystad Energy, Energy Aspects and FGE NexantECA said Chinese refiners are gradually moving back toward importing 10 million barrels of crude oil per day. Fourth-quarter imports could reach about 9.9 million barrels per day, but that would still be significantly below last year’s peak of between 12 million and 13 million barrels daily.
High crude prices remain a major obstacle to a stronger recovery in Chinese demand. Brent crude has climbed above $93 per barrel, while the OPEC basket is around $91.27. With China already holding large inventories after accumulating more than 1 billion barrels over the past two years, refiners have less incentive to aggressively stockpile additional crude at elevated prices.
The supply disruptions have also forced Chinese refiners to rethink where they source their oil. Many of the country’s refineries rely heavily on medium sour crude previously supplied by Middle Eastern producers. With Middle Eastern exports still well below earlier levels, Chinese buyers are increasingly turning to suppliers in Africa and South America to fill the gap. Energy Aspects analyst Jianan Sun said prolonged conflict and disrupted Middle Eastern flows, combined with high crude prices, are limiting stronger demand for additional stockpiling.
China is also relying more heavily on Russian crude as Iranian supplies decline. New Kpler data indicates that Chinese imports of Russian oil could average about 1.25 million barrels per day, down from 1.42 million barrels per day in July but still a substantial volume. At the same time, Iranian crude shipments to China are estimated to have fallen to around 340,000 barrels per day in August, highlighting how geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions are reshaping China’s oil trade.
source: oilprice
