Nigeria emerged as one of the African countries that benefited significantly from higher global oil prices in the first half of 2026, according to the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank). The bank said the rise in crude prices helped boost Nigeria’s export earnings, government revenues and external position as energy markets recorded strong gains during the period. The development provides a welcome boost for an economy that continues to rely heavily on oil revenues.
In its latest Afreximbank African Commodity Index (AACI) report released in July, the bank revealed that the overall index climbed 6.7 per cent, rising from 195.5 at the end of December 2025 to 208.6 by the end of June 2026. The Energy sub-index was the biggest driver of the increase, jumping 13.6 per cent to 191.6. Afreximbank linked the surge largely to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran-related conflict and concerns about possible disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed Brent crude prices higher.
Nigeria was listed alongside Angola, Libya and the Republic of Congo as one of the continent’s major net oil exporters to benefit from the stronger crude market. Afreximbank said higher energy prices translated into improved fiscal revenues and export earnings for oil-producing economies. OPEC+ supply management and steady global oil demand also helped keep crude prices supported, even after some of the immediate concerns surrounding Middle East supply disruptions eased. Natural gas prices also remained firm, helped by strong LNG demand from Asia and continued European demand driven by energy security concerns.
However, Afreximbank warned that the oil price boom was not good news for every African economy. Oil-importing countries such as Kenya, Morocco and Senegal faced higher import costs, transportation expenses and electricity prices, putting additional pressure on inflation. The bank said the situation highlights Africa’s continued exposure to global commodity shocks and its dependence on imported refined petroleum products. It therefore urged countries to increase investment in domestic refining, regional energy infrastructure and alternative energy sources to strengthen long-term energy security and reduce vulnerability to external disruptions.
Beyond the energy sector, commodity performance across Africa was mixed. Base metals rose 8.1 per cent, supported by demand for copper, aluminium and zinc from electrification, renewable energy and artificial intelligence infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, precious metals and agriculture each fell 2.7 per cent, with cocoa prices correcting after their strong 2024–2025 rally. Looking ahead, Afreximbank expects energy prices to moderate in the second half of 2026 as increased production from the United States, Brazil and Guyana adds to global supply. Still, geopolitical tensions could keep markets volatile. The bank encouraged Nigeria and other African economies to expand refining and processing capacity, diversify export markets and deepen intra-African trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to build stronger protection against future commodity price shocks.
source: Leadeship
