El Niño Threatens Nigeria’s Power Supply as Hydropower Generation Faces Major Setback
Nigeria’s electricity sector could be heading toward another period of instability as climate experts warn that the ongoing El Niño weather phenomenon may significantly reduce hydropower generation across West Africa. A new report by BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, revealed that prolonged drought conditions linked to El Niño could lower water levels at major hydroelectric facilities, putting additional pressure on Nigeria’s already fragile power supply system. The report also forecasts that Nigeria could become a net importer of electricity by 2026, increasing its vulnerability to regional power disruptions.
According to BMI, Nigeria remains one of the countries most exposed to the effects of reduced hydropower generation due to its growing dependence on both domestic and imported electricity. The report noted that previous El Niño events led to a nearly 25 percent drop in hydropower utilization, while the current climate pattern could have an even greater impact. As water reservoirs shrink, electricity generation from hydro plants may decline sharply, leading to supply shortages and higher energy costs for consumers and businesses.
The report further highlighted concerns surrounding Nigeria’s participation in the West African Power Pool (WAPP), a regional electricity network that allows countries to trade power. While West Africa is less dependent on hydropower than some East African nations, Nigeria remains particularly vulnerable because of its reliance on electricity imports. BMI estimated Nigeria’s electricity import dependency at 6.6 percent, warning that any drought-related disruptions affecting neighboring countries could quickly spill over into the domestic market.
To cushion the impact of potential power shortages, BMI expects Nigeria and other African countries to lean more heavily on thermal power generation, especially gas-fired plants. This trend could strengthen Nigeria’s existing dependence on natural gas, which already accounts for most of the country’s electricity production. At the same time, the report suggests that the growing threat of climate-related disruptions may accelerate investments in alternative energy sources such as solar, wind, battery storage systems, and distributed renewable energy projects.
Despite expectations that electricity generation across Sub-Saharan Africa will increase over the coming years, BMI warned that poor transmission infrastructure, weak power grids, and limited financing could continue to hinder reliable electricity supply. The report concluded that climate risks are rapidly reshaping Africa’s energy landscape, forcing governments to rethink long-term energy strategies. For Nigeria, the challenge will be balancing short-term energy needs with investments in more resilient and sustainable power sources as drought conditions continue to threaten the nation’s electricity future.
source: nairametrics