Nigeria Inflation Rate May Ease to 15.8% in June 2026 Despite Cost Pressures – Analysts Forecast

Nigeria’s inflation outlook may be heading for slight relief as analysts project that the Nigeria inflation rate June 2026 could ease to 15.8%, even as households continue to face persistent cost pressures across food, transport, and core goods. Cowry Asset Management Limited says the moderation could be driven by improving food supply conditions, relative stability in the foreign exchange market, and softer global crude oil prices.

The projection comes shortly after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 15.93% year-on-year in May 2026, up from 15.69% in April. This marks the third consecutive monthly increase, fueled largely by supply-side disruptions and global commodity pressures linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Despite the annual increase, there were signs of short-term relief as month-on-month inflation slowed to 1.75% in May from 2.13% in April. Analysts noted that this moderation reflects a slower pace of price increases, suggesting early signs that inflationary momentum may be cooling in certain sectors of the economy.

Food inflation, which remains the biggest driver of Nigeria’s price pressures, also recorded a notable decline. It eased to 16.96% in May 2026 from 24.55% in the same period last year, with month-on-month figures slowing to 2.98% from 3.63% in April. Prices of staples such as maize, tomatoes, onions, cassava, pepper, wheat, and cowpea saw slower increases.

However, economists caution that risks remain in the outlook, including elevated core inflation, high transportation costs, weather-related disruptions, and potential FX volatility. Still, if current trends in food supply improvements, exchange rate stability, and global commodity easing continue, analysts believe inflation could maintain a downward path in the coming months.

source: The Guardian