Tinubu Not Nigeria’s Biggest Borrower, New Report Says as Debt Debate Intensifies
President Bola Tinubu is not Nigeria’s biggest borrower since Nigeria returned to democratic rule in 1999, according to a new report that seeks to clarify growing concerns over the nation’s rising debt profile. The report, released by economic research firm Think Business Africa, argues that recent criticisms of the administration’s borrowing record do not align with available debt data and overlook the impact of exchange rate reforms on Nigeria’s debt valuation.
Titled “Who Borrowed Most? Nigeria’s Presidential Debt Record 1999–2025,” the report states that much of the increase in Nigeria’s public debt since 2023 is linked to the revaluation of existing foreign currency obligations following the unification of the foreign exchange market. According to the researchers, the sharp depreciation of the naira significantly increased the local currency value of inherited debts, creating the impression of a much larger debt burden without equivalent levels of new borrowing.
The report noted that Nigeria’s external debt stood at approximately $42.5 billion when Tinubu assumed office in May 2023 and rose to about $51.9 billion by December 2025, representing a net increase of roughly $9.4 billion. In contrast, external debt grew by about $32.6 billion during former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, increasing from $10.3 billion in 2015 to $42.9 billion in 2023. Think Business Africa said these figures challenge narratives suggesting that Tinubu has borrowed more than all previous democratic administrations combined.
Beyond the debate over borrowing, the report stressed that Nigeria’s more pressing challenge remains the cost of servicing debt. Rising debt service obligations continue to consume a significant share of government revenue, limiting spending on critical sectors such as infrastructure, healthcare, education, and social development. The report also highlighted that former President Olusegun Obasanjo remains the only democratic leader to have significantly reduced Nigeria’s external debt stock, cutting it by nearly $25.9 billion between 1999 and 2007.
The researchers further explained that comparing debt figures solely in naira terms can be misleading because Nigeria’s external loans are contracted and repaid in foreign currencies. They also pointed to the securitisation of about N23.9 trillion in Ways and Means advances accumulated under previous administrations as a major factor behind the rise in domestic debt figures. While official data from the Debt Management Office shows Nigeria’s total public debt increased from N87.38 trillion in June 2023 to N159.28 trillion by December 2025, Think Business Africa maintains that exchange rate adjustments and accounting changes played a substantial role in the increase, making actual new borrowing lower than headline figures suggest.
source: nairametrics