CBN Monetary Policy Rate Decision: Analysts Expect Hold at 26.5% Amid Rising Inflation Pressures

Analysts are widely expecting the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to keep its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) unchanged at 26.5% during its 305th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday in Abuja. The decision, they say, reflects ongoing inflationary pressures, exchange rate sensitivity, and global economic uncertainties.

Market watchers believe the apex bank is more likely to adopt a cautious “wait-and-see” approach rather than introduce fresh rate cuts or hikes at this stage of the cycle.

Speaking during Nairametrics’ Drinks and Mics podcast, financial experts noted that although inflation has shown some moderation in recent months, underlying price pressures remain strong across key sectors of the economy.

Analysts also pointed to external risks, including geopolitical tensions and elevated energy costs, as factors that could influence the CBN’s decision to maintain its current stance.

At its last meeting in February, the MPC had reduced the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points from 27% to 26.5%, marking its first rate cut in several months. That move was seen as a cautious attempt to balance inflation control with economic growth support.

However, experts now suggest that the easing cycle may pause as policymakers reassess both domestic inflation trends and global financial stability risks.

According to economists who participated in the discussion, inflation in Nigeria remains broad-based, affecting food, transport, accommodation, and core consumer prices. While the naira has shown relative stability, they warn that liquidity conditions and energy costs could still reverse recent gains.

There are also concerns about the refinancing of trillions of naira in Open Market Operations (OMO) maturities in the coming months, which could complicate monetary tightening or easing decisions.

Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 15.69% in April 2026 from 15.38% in March, according to official data, driven largely by food prices and supply chain pressures. Analysts expect seasonal agricultural trends to further influence price levels in the near term.

As the MPC meeting approaches, investors and businesses are watching closely for signals on whether the CBN will maintain its tightening bias or begin a gradual shift toward easing. The outcome is expected to shape market sentiment, borrowing costs, and broader economic confidence in the months ahead.

source: nairametrics