CBN MPC Meeting: Analysts Predict No Change in Interest Rate as Inflation Pressures Persist

Nigeria’s monetary policy outlook is set for a cautious stance as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) begins its two-day meeting on Monday. Analysts widely expect the committee to keep the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) unchanged at 26.50 per cent, citing persistent inflationary pressures and global energy uncertainties.

At its last meeting in February 2026, the MPC surprised markets with a 50-basis-point cut, bringing the benchmark rate down to 26.50 per cent. The decision was influenced by a steady slowdown in headline inflation at the time, which had shown signs of easing for several consecutive months.

However, that trend has since reversed. Inflation figures climbed from 15.10 per cent in January to 15.69 per cent in April, marking a renewed uptick driven largely by higher domestic fuel costs. The increase followed disruptions in global energy markets linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which pushed up transportation and production costs across Nigeria.

Economic analysts warn that the inflation outlook could worsen in the coming months if energy prices remain elevated. The Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) projects inflation could rise to between 17 and 20 per cent by December 2026, suggesting that the CBN may need to maintain a tight monetary stance. Some analysts also noted that the Committee may consider raising the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) if liquidity pressures persist in the banking system.

In separate forecasts, Coronation Merchant Bank and Parthian Securities both emphasized that the MPC is likely to maintain a “wait-and-see” approach. They argue that while inflation may show temporary moderation in the short term, the broader risks from fuel price pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and global oil price movements mean rate cuts are unlikely in the near future, with September 2026 now seen as the earliest possible window for easing.

source: newtelegraph