The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has switched to processing lighter crude oil as it works to limit production disruptions caused by the prolonged shutdown of its Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC), a key unit in gasoline production. The development was highlighted in a new outlook report by global commodities intelligence firm Kpler, which said the strategy is helping the refinery maintain partial operations despite ongoing technical challenges.
According to the report titled “Dangote H1 2026 Outlook: RFCC challenges keep runs capped and ramp-up uneven”, the refinery has increasingly relied on lighter crude grades with an API gravity of about 37–39 since the fourth quarter of 2025. This adjustment has allowed Dangote to preserve feedstock for crude distillation-linked secondary units, including the Continuous Catalytic Reformer, isomerisation, and hydrocracking units, keeping gasoline and middle distillate production running.
Kpler noted that the move has reduced the risk of major supply disruptions at a time when the 200,000-barrel-per-day RFCC remains offline following repeated outages since April 2025. While the absence of the RFCC continues to cap overall refinery throughput, the lighter crude slate has played a stabilising role, enabling the plant to operate key units and slow the impact of the delayed ramp-up.
Despite these constraints, Dangote Refinery has continued to supply gasoline by relying on alternative conversion units and increased imports of blending components. Kpler estimates that gasoline imports into the refinery rose to around 45,000 barrels per day in January, supporting output as internal conversion capacity remains limited. Crude runs during the month were estimated at between 280,000 and 300,000 barrels per day and are expected to hover around 300,000 to 320,000 barrels per day into February.
Looking ahead, Kpler said refinery runs could gradually improve to about 350,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026 and around 400,000 barrels per day in the first half of the year, assuming the RFCC begins ramping up from the third week of February. However, the firm warned that risks remain skewed to the downside, noting that full stabilisation could take months, or even years, as extended ramp-up periods are common for mega-refineries like Dangote, especially when critical conversion units face reliability issues.
source: punch