The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, has decided to keep oil production levels unchanged, even as political tensions and economic pressures mount across several member states. The decision, reached during a brief online meeting on Sunday, signals the group’s preference for market stability amid uncertainty rather than reactive policy changes.
The meeting involved eight key OPEC+ producers responsible for nearly half of global oil supply and came against the backdrop of a sharp oil price slump. Crude prices have fallen by more than 18 per cent so far in 2025 — the steepest annual decline since 2020 — driven largely by concerns of oversupply and weakening demand, particularly during the northern hemisphere winter.
For Nigeria, the decision comes at a challenging time. Although Africa’s largest oil producer briefly met its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day last year, output has since faltered. This is despite earlier indications that the country might seek a higher production allocation, underscoring ongoing operational and security challenges within the sector.
Meanwhile, geopolitical strains continue to weigh heavily on the producer group. Relations between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates deteriorated last month following renewed tensions linked to Yemen’s long-running conflict. At the same time, uncertainty intensified after the United States announced it had taken control of Venezuela following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro — a development that adds further instability to global energy markets.
Analysts say OPEC+ is deliberately avoiding political flashpoints in favour of maintaining cohesion. “Oil markets are being driven less by supply-demand fundamentals and more by political uncertainty,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. With Russian exports constrained by sanctions, Iran facing domestic unrest, and Venezuela’s output crippled by years of mismanagement, experts believe any meaningful increase in global oil supply will remain limited in the near term — reinforcing OPEC+’s cautious stance ahead of its next meeting on February 1.
Source: Arise