Nigeria’s Inflation Set to Fall to 15.84% as Bumper Harvest Eases Food Prices – Stanbic IBTC

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate is projected to drop sharply to 15.84% in October, down from 18.02% in September, thanks to easing food prices during the country’s main harvest season. According to a new report by Stanbic IBTC Bank, the improved food supply and relative exchange rate stability are helping to moderate inflationary pressures across the economy.

The bank’s latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey forecasts that inflation could further decline to between 14.25% and 14.62% in November, reflecting stronger agricultural output and better market conditions. “Food prices are expected to continue easing in the coming months in line with the ongoing harvest season, which should keep prices at seasonal lows until December,” said Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research at Stanbic IBTC.

However, Oni noted that non-food inflation could experience mild pressure due to slightly higher fuel prices in October, linked to production challenges at the Dangote Refinery, which supplies about 40% of Nigeria’s domestic petrol. Despite this, he added that the recent stability of the naira and its gradual appreciation are expected to cushion potential cost increases and maintain consumer purchasing power.

Stanbic IBTC further highlighted that the combination of exchange rate stability and the possibility of a monetary policy easing cycle could boost real sector activity and support medium-term economic growth. Nigeria’s economy expanded by 4.23% year-on-year in Q2 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, and the bank projects 4.0% GDP growth for the year, led by the manufacturing and services sectors.

The PMI survey, conducted between October 9 and 29, showed stronger business activity, with the headline index rising to 54.0 points from 53.4 in September—marking the 11th consecutive month of expansion. The report noted that new product launches, rising orders, and softer price pressures spurred growth, particularly in manufacturing. Overall, the final quarter of 2025 began on a positive note, with companies reporting increased demand and slower price hikes, signaling a more stable inflation outlook for Nigeria.

source: The Sun