Nigeria recorded a current account (CA) surplus of $6.1 billion in Q3 2024, up from $3.9 billion in Q2, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of surplus. This positive trend, driven by reduced import bills and steady remittance inflows, has helped stabilize the naira within the N1,450-N1,500 range against the dollar. Analysts believe the surplus signals a strong trade balance and income, boosting investor confidence and economic stability.
Key factors contributing to this surplus include a sharp decline in merchandise imports, a rise in remittances from Nigerians abroad, and a stable oil price environment. Merchandise imports fell significantly, particularly in petroleum products, while secondary income from remittances grew to $5.78 billion. Despite a rising services account deficit due to higher business and travel expenses, the overall external balance remained favorable, reinforcing the naira’s resilience amid economic headwinds.
However, challenges remain as forex demand surged in Q3, leading to a sharp depreciation in the naira. The growing reliance on portfolio investments over direct foreign investments raises concerns about long-term stability. Analysts predict the CA surplus will persist in the near term, supported by domestic petroleum refining, though it may moderate in 2025 as businesses increase imports. To sustain this surplus, Nigeria must implement policies that encourage exports, manage exchange rate fluctuations, and enhance economic diversification.