The International Energy Agency (IEA) has voiced support for the United States’ stance, indicating that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries could disrupt global petroleum markets, as reported by Bloomberg and Ukrinform. The IEA’s monthly report suggests that about 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day of Russia’s crude processing capacity may be offline this quarter, potentially impacting petroleum product exports.
The shutdown of these refineries for repairs, lasting between four to eight weeks, could lead to a significant loss in Russian petroleum product exports, particularly affecting international markets reliant on Russian exports of diesel, naphtha, and jet fuel. This warning aligns with a statement by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who cautioned that Ukrainian attacks could have ripple effects on the global energy market.
However, despite these concerns, the actual decline in oil refinery output has been less severe than anticipated. IEA data shows that official weekly data on Russian refineries through the end of March matched crude oil production volumes of 5.0 to 5.2 million barrels per day, contrary to earlier estimates indicating lower refinery outages.
Source: Boomerang