With Oil Supply Growth Lagging Behind Demand, OPEC+ is in Charge.

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After the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members and allies, including Russia, agreed additional production cutbacks of around 1.16 million barrels per day (bpd), oil has increased to $85 per barrel. Oil and gas upstream capital spending increased 39% to $499 billion in 2022, the highest level since 2014 and the biggest year-over-year increase ever, according to the International Energy Forum (IEF).

However, the IEF stated that in order to maintain adequate supply, yearly upstream expenditure will need to climb to $640 billion in 2030. According to its own statistics and independent estimates, OPEC is producing over 1 million bpd less than its current output target, with substantial gaps in Nigeria and Angola where Western oil corporations have withdrawn.

While non-OPEC producers are still expected to pump more in 2023, the forecast of a supply increase of 1.44 million bpd falls short of expected world demand growth of 2.32 million bpd, according to OPEC forecasts.


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