The European Union is looking for alternative sources of refined products as a result of the sanctions imposed on Russian fuels like diesel, so the Dangote Refinery’s value is expected to soar once it is finished in 2023.
When ramped up starting in 2024, Fitch anticipates the project to contribute roughly $1 billion per year to EBITDA once it is operational. After it is finished, the refinery will dominate the Nigerian fuel market and have the capacity to export to other parts of Africa, Europe, and South America.
Higher refining margins are therefore anticipated to increase the value of the Dangote Refinery above industry averages, with oil products cracks expanding, due to a tight market.
