Even with Dangote and NNPC Refineries, Petrol Will Sell Above N400/Litre.

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An analysis of oil prices, import duties, and refinery contracts shows that even if the Dangote Refinery and those controlled by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) come online, the market price for petrol would soar above N400 per litre.

There is no way the Dangote Refinery, assuming it opens as planned in the middle of 2023; could offer refined gasoline for less than N400 per litre if oil prices stay around $100 per litre.

In a recent briefing, Mele Kyari, group chief executive officer of NNPC, stated that the NNPC refineries alone cannot meet a quarter of Nigeria’s current capacity of 66 million litres per day; due to rising consumption spurred by population growth.

The management of the refinery is require by this contract to operate profitably; in order to create sufficient revenue to pay back the loans.


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