Nigeria’s 2060 Net-zero Projection

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For Nigeria, it was revealed that the nation plans to zero out carbon emissions by 2060 through its Energy Transition Plan for achieving net-zero emissions. President Muhammadu Buhari made this pledge at the High-Level segment for Heads of State and Government.

In his speech, Buhari, whose address was expected to highlight Nigeria’s key priorities and action to tackle climate change as well as progress on the country’s transition to low carbon economy, consistent with achieving the Paris Climate Agreement, said: “Nigeria is committed to net zero by 2060”.

He further said: “For Nigeria, climate change is not about the perils of tomorrow but about what is happening today. In our lifetime, nature has gone from a vast expanse of biodiversity to a shadow of itself.

“We are investing in renewables, hydro-dams and solar projects. Nigeria is not looking to make the same mistakes that are being repeated for decades by others. We are looking for partners in innovation, technology and finance to make cleaner and more efficient use of all available resources to help make for a more stable transition in energy markets.

“The revised Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) has additional priority sectors. Water and waste, nature-based solutions, adaptions and resilience, vulnerability assessment and a clean cooking gender and green jobs assessment.”

“Nigeria has developed a detailed energy transition plan and roadmap based on data and evidence. This plan has highlighted some key facts that face the difficult conversations. Our transition plan also highlights the key role that gas must play in transitioning our economy across sectors.

“The data and evidence show that Nigeria can continue to use gas until 2040 without distracting from the goals of the Paris Agreement.

“Nigeria has an approved national action plan on gender and climate change. This document incorporates priority areas of our economic recovery and growth plan and nationally determined contributions.

“The implementation strategy for this national action plan has been developed. In a bid to commit to transitional change through climate policy, the revised national policy on climate change was approved in June 2021. This will enable us to implement mitigation measures and also strengthen adaption towards a sustainable climate resilient development pathway in Nigeria.”

Nigeria GHG Emission

Nigeria’s latest GHG emissions estimates indicate around 2 tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) per capita, per year and the INDC projects that by 2030, under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, total emissions will grow by 114% to 900 million tCO2e (approximately 3.4 tCO2e per capita). The high-growth scenario projects 2030 emissions of over 1 billion tCO2e/year. The conditional INDC target for 2030 aims to stabilise emissions at around 2 tCO2e per capita. The INDC sets out a series of mitigation goals to be achieved by 2030, including, ending gas flaring by 2030; Deploying 13 GW of off-grid solar PV generation capacity; Installing efficient gas generators; Improving energy efficiency by 2% per year (30% by 2030); Achieving a shift in transport use from private cars to buses; Improving the electricity grid; promoting climate-smart agriculture and reforestation.

Adaptation Component

Nigeria is highly vulnerable to climate change. The 2014 World Climate Change Vulnerability Index classifies Nigeria as one of the 10 most vulnerable countries in the world. The NDC highlighted the following sectors that are projected to be affected by climate change: Economy: If no adaptation action is taken, 2-11% of Nigeria’s GDP could be lost by 2020. Food security: Agricultural productivity could decline 10-25% per cent by 2080. Water stress: A considerable share of the population is at risk; less than 40 per cent of the population has direct access to potable water. Flood risk: The 2012 floods were estimated to have caused N1.48 trillion (US$9.5 billion) in damages, about 2 per cent of the rebased GDP. Soil erosion: Recent increases in the incidence of landslides are likely to be exacerbated. Sea-level rise: An increase of 0.5-1 m by 2100 would result in the loss of 35-75 per cent of the Niger Delta.

The INDC refers to the National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action for Climate Change Nigeria (NASPACNN) as the key document on adaptation. The plan includes 13 sector-specific strategies, policies, programmes and measures. Its stated objective is to reduce the impacts of climate change through adaptation measures to be undertaken by the federal, state, and local Government.

It is increasingly recognised that climate action by sub-national and non-state actors, including regional and local governments and businesses, is key to enhancing ambitions. There is significant potential for these actors to address climate change and a variety of practical and cost-effective options for action exist.

Lagos State Commitment to GHG

Strategies to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, as is required to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement, must be built on reliable climate evidence. Lagos has developed an emissions inventory to allow it to identify the areas and sectors with the highest potential for GHG emissions reduction, select transformative climate actions and accelerate the transition to a zero-carbon economy. Lagos State’s GHG emissions account for a large share of national emissions. Lagos’s large and growing population, rapid urbanisation and industrialisation result in high GHG emissions primarily from energy consumption, transport and waste. According to the 2015 GHG inventory, Lagos generated GHG emissions of 26,443,656 tCO2e in that year. The majority of emissions (55%) were generated by the stationary energy sector, followed by the waste (25%) and transport (20%) sectors. However, these results contain some uncertainty as data was not available for all relevant activities.

In his presentation at COP26, The Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, said the state government has begun the building of low carbon healthcare infrastructure facilities in the state.

He stated that the administration would build healthcare infrastructure that are 50 percent less carbon and 50 percent less energy dependent, adding that they are investing in renewable energy, “we are cooling down the buildings and we have special designers building our primary, secondary and tertiary healthcare facilities.”

Sanwo-Olu revealed that the state government is building its health infrastructures in the state to be net zero and ensure that fossil fuel is not used to generate power or cool down the facilities.

He said part of the plan is to use natural ventilation or solar power or special designs or wind to cool their buildings and power electricity.

He disclosed that the state government is addressing healthcare delivery holistically through the one health agenda programme, noting that an individual is only as healthy if the environment is healthy too.

Sanwo-Olu who was represented at the conference by the Commissioner for Health, Professor, Akin Abayomi hinted that the administration is looking at healthcare delivery from a proactive prevention strategy rather than just building hospitals to treat ailments, “let people breathe better air, and drink good water.”

According to him, “The goal is that the healthcare facilities will be naturally cool, requiring less energy to maintain. We don’t want to use air conditioners. We are also looking at the different environments in Lagos such as heat island, coastal, land field, and sand field.

So, you cannot say you want to build the same house on heat island and land fields, or the same house in coastal or flood prone areas. You need specialist designers. In Lagos, we are paying attention to energy, functionality and maintenance.

“The one health agenda encompasses environment. The carbon footprint is increasing daily because of the influx of people entering Lagos every time. The state government is here in Glasgow to support the federal climate adaptation and mitigation strategy because if they federal government is able to push the desert back; you will have less people coming from the south. If we are able to plan the required number of trees in Nigeria, stop deforestation, then you are going to make life comfortable for Nigerians in every state in Nigeria which will stop the rural to urban migration. Lagos has a climate adaptation plan breakdown into adaptation and mitigation. So, every agency is developing their own strategy to address mitigation and adaptation. The health ministry is teaming up with the Ministry of environment in a very strategic way because we are aware that the ministry of environment is relevant stakeholder in this effort.”

UK Funding for Africa

The United Kingdom government has announced new £143.5 million funding to support African governments to roll-out critical adaptation projects so at-risk communities can adapt to the impact of extreme weather and changing climates. This is just as Nigeria has been declared eligible to benefit from the Africa Regional Climate and Nature Programme (ARCAN).

According to COP26 President Alok Sharma, the new UK support for the Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program (AAAP) – an initiative endorsed by African Union leaders and led by the African Development Bank, Global Centre on Adaptation and the Africa Adaptation Initiative, is to back African-led plans to accelerate resilience-building across Africa.

Also, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the UK is offering an ambitious new guarantee mechanism – the ‘Room to Run’ guarantee – to the African Development Bank (AfDB).

This is expected to unlock up to £1.45 billion ($2 billion) worth of new financing for projects across the continent, half of which will help countries adapt to the impacts of climate change.

UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: “More finance for African nations to develop and adapt to climate change is important as these countries find themselves on the frontline of impacts. It is a huge investment opportunity.

“By combining our cash with other donors and businesses, and working with partners such as the African Development Bank to direct funding into green projects, today we are delivering on our commitment to African-led climate adaptation.”

UK Minister for Africa Vicky Ford said: “For communities across Africa, the impact of climate change is being felt right now. From cyclones in Southern Africa to locusts in East Africa, changing weather patterns are already having catastrophic impacts for communities living across the continent, impacting lives and jobs. This is despite African nations being responsible for just 2-3 per cent of global emissions.

“New support announced today will enable African countries to adapt to a changing climate and build resilience to the impacts of climate change. This is essential if communities and countries are to thrive in an uncertain future.”

The UK is a long-standing supporter of Africa’s adaptation to climate change, with around half of the UK’s £2.7 billion ($3.7 billion) adaptation budget between 2016 and 2020 spent in Africa.

Speaking also, the UK’S Deputy High Commissioner in Lagos, Ben Llewellyn-Jones, said: “Africa is already bearing the brunt of climate impacts as a consequence of dangerous climate chance. The need to scale up adaptation finance to protect the people and economies from the impact of climate change is clear.

“Climate action, building resilience and sustainable development are inextricably linked. Working with key partners such as the African Development Bank and others, this new suite of programmes will support African countries, including Nigeria, to adapt to the effects of climate change.”

–  ThisDay

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