This was the week Nigerians learned that two decades of democratic rule have brought scant change.
When the ruling elite is threatened, the country’s leaders fall back on the tactics used by the military dictators of the 1980s and 1990s: crush the demonstrations.
For two weeks thousands of young Nigerians, many born after the return to democracy, have taken to the streets of the country’s biggest cities to express their anger about everything from police brutality to corruption.
At first it looked like things might be different this time. President Muhammadu Buhari’s government agreed to scrap a hated police unit and apologized to the protesters. Then on Oct. 20, a 24-hour curfew was imposed in Lagos, sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous city, and soldiers fired on demonstrators when they defied it. Amnesty International puts the death toll across the country at 56 people.
Buhari’s attempts to calm the unrest and distance himself from his past — he was the military ruler from 1983 to 1985 — have been undermined, as have his campaign pledges to tackle corruption and clean up the security forces.
The president warned protesters against being “used by some subversive elements to cause chaos” in a national address. “Under no circumstances will this be tolerated.”
With condemnation echoing across the globe, he may find that he hasn’t addressed the central issue: real change.
Buhari, 77, presides over 200 million people whose average age is 18. Half the population is classified as extremely poor. Ramshackle infrastructure, widespread insecurity and rampant corruption make daily life for most a struggle.
“2020 is a year of rage for young people across the world,” said Antony Goldman, founder and chief executive officer of Promedia Consulting, a political risk advisory firm. “The difference in Nigeria is that it’s not a government but a whole system.”
News & Opinion
Zambia Default | Africa’s second-biggest copper producer won time to persuade creditors to agree to debt-payment relief as it seeks to avoid becoming the first nation on the continent to default since the coronavirus hit. A key group of Eurobond holders abstained from voting on the government’s request this week, shifting focus to the next gathering on Nov. 13. That’s also the final day to make a missed coupon payment. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund named a representative for Zambia, suggesting strained ties may be improving.
Ethiopia Banks | New banknotes in Ethiopia to stamp out counterfeiting have led to at least 1.3 million people being added to the financial system. The campaign to stop the hoarding of cash that enables corruption and illegal trade to thrive has residents exchange old currency for bank cards. While similar processes flopped in other countries, the Horn of Africa nation has added almost $1 billion in bank deposits so far.
Land Fears | South Africa is looking to ease investors fears that allowing the seizure of land without payment will degenerate into a free-for-all. The government published a new law that will go with a change to the constitution, laying out the rules for expropriation. There won’t be wholesale seizures and the courts will adjudicate disputes, says Land Reform and Rural Development Minister Thoko Didiza. The premise must still be approved by two-thirds of lawmakers.
Cocoa Labor | A decade after the $100 billion chocolate industry pledged to cut child labor in the world’s top cocoa producers, a report sponsored by the U.S. government shows the problem has actually gotten worse. About 43% of children from farming families in growing areas in Ivory Coast and Ghana carried out dangerous work on farms during the 2018-19 season. Major chocolate companies have committed to help eradicate child labor from their supply chains.
Zimbabwe Gold | Jersey-based gold producer Caledonia Mining is interested in buying one of Zimbabwe’s largest gold operations — part of an aggressive plan to acquire more assets in the southern African nation. The operations owned by Bilboes Gold could potentially produce more than 200,000 ounces of the precious metal. Most of the mines are currently mothballed as the owners seek investors. Caledonia is ramping up production at its Blanket mine in the southwest of the country.
Past & Prologue
Data Watch
Economic growth in the economies of sub-Saharan Africa will fall behind the rest of the world next year, according to the IMF. Gross domestic product in the region is projected to expand 3.1% in 2021, compared with a forecast of 5.2% for the world economy.
Zimbabwe’s dollar gained4for a second month, showing some stability after plunging since being reintroduced 18 months ago, thanks partly to weekly auctions.
October 28 South Africa’s mid-term budget, South Africa inflation, Tanzania presidential election
October 29 Zambia inflation and trade balance, South Africa money supply & credit data and producer inflation, Sibanye-Stillwater results
October 30 South Africa trade data for September and monthly budget balance, Kenya and Uganda inflation, Impala Platinum 1Q update, MTN update for third quarter
Last Word
A group of Zambian women and children are suing Anglo American in South Africa, alleging the company caused widespread lead poisoning from a mine it operated until 1974. The case, on behalf of about 100,000 people, is demanding compensation and a clean-up of the area near the northern city of Kabwe. The mine was at one stage the world’s biggest lead operation, but was nationalized by the government almost 50 years ago and eventually shut down in 1994. The company says it will “vigorously defend its position,” adding that it was never a majority owner. “Kabwe is the most dangerous place on the planet” in terms of lead pollution, according to Jack Caravanos, a professor at New York University who studies lead and other toxic waste.
– Bloomberg