Nigeria’s manufacturing sector is struggling to break through a ceiling that has persisted for years. Despite successive government reforms and ambitious industrialisation plans, manufacturing’s contribution to Nigeria’s GDP has remained below 10% for most of the past decade, raising fresh concerns about the country’s ability to build a stronger industrial economy.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics and World Bank show that manufacturing contributed 9.43% to GDP in 2015 but fell to 8.05% in 2025. The sector reached a decade-high contribution of 9.65% in 2018, but the improvement did not last. After recovering gradually between 2021 and 2023, manufacturing slipped again to 8.66% in 2024 and 8.05% in 2025.
Industry experts say the numbers point to a deeper structural problem rather than a temporary setback. Dele Kelvin Oye, chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics Ltd/GTE, described the situation as a “lost decade” for industrialisation, pointing to unreliable electricity, high interest rates, poor transport infrastructure, multiple taxation, low capacity utilisation and dependence on imported raw materials. He also noted that manufacturing, which contributed more than 20% of GDP in the early 1990s, is now heavily concentrated in the food, beverage and tobacco subsectors.
Nigeria is also falling behind several African economies. World Bank data for 2024 put manufacturing value added at 15.27% of GDP in Morocco, 13.89% in Egypt and 12.80% in South Africa, compared with about 8.65% for Nigeria. Ghana also recorded 9.84%, putting further pressure on Nigeria to rethink its industrial strategy. Muda Yusuf, chief executive officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, said the sector has hovered around 9–10% of GDP for much of Nigeria’s democratic era, despite repeated reform announcements.
The Federal Government’s National Industrial Policy 2025–2030 aims to raise manufacturing’s contribution to between 20% and 25% of GDP by 2030. But experts warn that achieving that target will require more than another policy document. They are calling for reliable electricity, better logistics, affordable long-term financing, stronger local-content enforcement, consistent policies and support for domestic production. Until those problems are addressed, Nigeria’s manufacturing sector may remain trapped in the same cycle—ambitious targets on paper, but limited growth on the factory floor.
source: Business day
