Nigeria is moving toward a major shift in its oil industry, with plans to refine all of its crude oil locally by 2030 as the country expands domestic refining capacity. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) says the government wants to end the long-standing practice of exporting crude oil while importing refined petroleum products. The plan is expected to strengthen energy security, support local industries and keep more value within Nigeria’s economy.
According to a report by S&P Global, Nigeria produced about 1.74 million barrels of crude oil per day in June 2026 and is targeting production of up to 3 million barrels daily by 2030. At the same time, the country’s domestic refining capacity has risen to approximately 1.12 million barrels per day. NMDPRA Chief Executive Officer Rabiu Umar said the authority is working with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to ensure that local crude supply obligations under the Petroleum Industry Act are properly enforced.
The expansion of the Dangote Refinery is expected to be central to the government’s ambition. The refinery, which already plays a major role in supplying Nigeria’s refined petroleum products, plans to double its processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. However, securing enough reliable crude has remained a challenge. In the second quarter of 2026, NUPRC data showed that domestic refiners received 53.7 million barrels of Nigerian crude, with the Dangote refinery accounting for 52.6 million barrels.
Despite being offered about 68.1 million barrels during the quarter, the Dangote refinery did not receive the full volume it required. This highlights one of the biggest challenges facing Nigeria’s local refining push: ensuring that crude producers actually supply domestic refineries in line with existing regulations. NUPRC said discussions are ongoing with NMDPRA, the Ministry of Finance and crude suppliers to strengthen enforcement of the domestic crude supply obligations.
If successfully implemented, Nigeria’s plan to refine all locally produced crude by 2030 could significantly reshape the country’s petroleum sector. Instead of exporting large volumes of crude and relying heavily on imported refined products, Nigeria could increasingly process its oil at home, create more opportunities across the energy value chain and improve fuel supply security. With production targeted at 3 million barrels per day and major refineries expanding, the next few years could determine whether Nigeria finally turns its huge crude resources into a stronger domestic refining industry.
source: The cable
