Nigeria Crude Supply Gap Widens as Refineries Receive Only 36–46% of Allocated Oil – NUPRC Report

Nigeria’s domestic crude oil supply chain is under renewed pressure after refineries received only 28.5 million barrels of crude oil in the first quarter of 2026, significantly below the 61.9 million barrels allocated for the period. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) disclosed this in its latest update on the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO), highlighting persistent delivery challenges in the sector.

Although oil producers actually offered more crude than required—about 68.7 million barrels—only a fraction of this volume eventually reached local refineries. According to the NUPRC, the mismatch between offers and actual supply reflects ongoing pricing disputes between producers and domestic refiners operating under the “willing buyer, willing seller” framework.

The Commission revealed that the conversion rate of crude allocated to actual supply ranged between 36% and 46% during the quarter. In January, 9.2 million barrels were delivered out of 22.6 million allocated, while February saw 9.1 million barrels supplied from a 20.5 million-barrel allocation. March recorded a slight improvement, with 10.1 million barrels delivered against an 18.8 million-barrel allocation.

Despite the shortfall in deliveries, producers consistently showed readiness to supply more crude than required. However, pricing disagreements continued to stall transactions, preventing refineries from accessing available feedstock even when supply offers exceeded demand across the three-month period.

The supply challenges come amid fluctuating national crude output levels. Nigeria’s production averaged 1.459 million barrels per day in January 2026 before dropping to 1.31 million barrels per day in February and rebounding slightly to 1.38 million barrels in March. With Q2 2026 allocations now set at 55.1 million barrels, the industry faces continued pressure to resolve pricing disputes and improve domestic refining efficiency.

source: nairametrics