Nigeria’s oil production fell sharply in January 2026, raising concerns about the country’s ability to meet both its budget and OPEC targets. According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), total oil output, including condensates, dropped by 6.3% year-on-year to 1.627 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 1.737 million bpd in January 2025.
Month-on-month, the decline continued as output decreased by 5.4%, down from 1.544 million bpd in December 2025. The NUPRC reported that the lowest and peak combined production during the month ranged between 1.59 million bpd and 1.82 million bpd. Analysts note that this shortfall highlights ongoing operational and infrastructural challenges within the sector.
This production slump means Nigeria fell below its 2026 budget benchmark of 1.84 million bpd, which was projected based on an oil price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,400 per dollar. At the same time, global oil prices softened, dipping to around $67 per barrel, down from nearly $70 in recent weeks, reflecting continued volatility in the international market.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also reported a decline in Nigeria’s crude output, excluding condensates, which fell by 5% year-on-year to 1.459 million bpd. The country therefore missed its OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd for the period, according to OPEC’s February 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report.
NUPRC data indicate that condensate production alone currently stands at about 196,028 bpd. Industry experts warn that if output does not stabilize, Nigeria risks both revenue shortfalls and continued pressure on foreign exchange earnings, underlining the urgent need for investment in upstream operations and infrastructure.
source: vanguard